Too Much of a Good Thing

Here's a problem we never thought we would have: an American cinema that's too good. Just as the summer has become the season for car chase and explosion movies, the fall has become the season for movies about guys who don't tuck in their shirts. Studio executives face the same nerve-wracking problem in both seasons: too much product, not enough shelf space. There's a long list of quality films released to a crowded marketplace this fall: A Mighty Heart, In the Valley of Elah, Lars and the Real Girl, The Hunting Party, Sleuth, and Reservation Road have so far failed to gross seven figures. People are shaking their heads at the $21 million Michael Clayton has grossed so far, although it's the fourth-highest grossing film in the nation, as of last Monday. The Little Miss Sunshine paradigm, in which an indie film for grown ups grosses nine times what it cost to make, is obsolete after one year.

While there's much teeth-gnashing in LA, New York media execs are biding their time. Box office grosses are perhaps the most overrated metric in the culture industry. Box office receipts make up less than 20% of a studio's income on a given film release. The number gets so much press because box office money stays in LA; the rest--DVD sales, cable rights, foreign distribution, etc.--heads to New York and the corporate parents of the Hollywood studios.

This fall the American film industry has rediscovered grown ups only to be reminded why Hollywood abandoned them 35 years ago. There's a lot of competition for adults' eyes. Small children, for example, need to be monitored every waking moment. My wife and I have to plan at least two weeks in advance to go out to the movies. Grown ups are reluctant to pay a babysitter the same rate as a Blackwater guard for the privilege of wading through a mass of popcorn-addled teenagers to get to their film at the dark end of a multiplex hallway. Netflix is so much easier. So it will take until next March to make it through the current crop of releases. Too bad for the Hollywood studio executive who needs grosses for his Christmas bonus, but that's the reality of doing business in a culture with too many choices. Besides, by next March we'll be ready to rent last summer's blockbusters.